Counterpoint: Apple set to overtake Samsung as the world’s top phone maker
Apple is predicted to maintain the lead in the coming years.
By Shawn Tan -
Apple is poised to overtake Samsung as the world’s largest smartphone maker, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest report.
The market research firm projects that strong demand for the iPhone 17 lineup will drive 10% year-over-year (YoY) growth for Apple, outpacing Samsung’s expected 4.6% increase. If these projections hold, Apple is on track to topple Samsung and reclaim the top position for the first time in 14 years!
Momentum behind the iPhone 17 lineup appears to be growing. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo shared in September that early pre-order data suggests a stronger demand for the iPhone 17 than the iPhone 16 last year. This surge reportedly prompted two Apple suppliers to increase daily production by at least 30% to meet orders.
Omdia’s data corroborates this trend, showing that Apple achieved its highest-ever Q3 shipments. The standard iPhone 17 model has emerged as a global standout hit, including Singapore, where units remained sold out five weeks after launch. In China, Apple saw a record October sales with YoY growth of 37%.
Counterpoint also attributes Apple’s projected rise to the broader market’s replacement cycle reaching an inflection point. Many consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now ready to upgrade.
Looking ahead, Apple is expected to maintain its lead in the coming years. The rumoured 2026 debut of the iPhone 17e and a foldable iPhone, along with a “major shake-up” of the iPhone lineup in 2027, could strengthen Apple’s position at the top of the smartphone market.