The smartwatch market is a tough one. Pebble, a smartwatch pioneer, sold its key assets to Fitbit and shut down last year. Motorola has confirmed that it will not be making more smartwatches, and the latest rumors are that Asus will be killing off its ZenWatch line.
Despite all this, I remain bullish about the Apple Watch’s future. So far, Watch sales seem to be trending in the right direction. Apple doesn’t reveal exact sales numbers, but according to a report from Strategy Analytics, Apple surpassed Fitbit last year to become the world’s largest wearables company.
For some perspective, Fitbit has been selling wearables since 2008. Apple has been selling the Watch since 2015. Tim Cook, on Apple’s 2017 Q2 earnings call, remarked that Apple Watch shipments have nearly doubled year-over-year.
But my main reason for being optimistic is the Watch’s potential to positively affect health. It’s true that research has shown that people who wear trackers don’t increase their physical activity by significant amounts, but I’m talking about something more than that.
It’s about changing your life
More than two years ago, I argued that what fitness trackers need to succeed are two things: Big data and the ability to understand big data. This is what I wrote:
Imagine the heart rate sensor on the new Apple Watch. What if the sensor could not only monitor your heart rate over time, but also detect unusual heart palpitations and log them against a database of heart rates? What if it could then send you a message, warning you that people with similar heart rate patterns have a higher chance of heart problems and you should get it checked out?
Well, you don’t have to imagine any longer. A recent study found that the Apple Watch is able to detect abnormal heart rates, or atrial fibrillation, with an accuracy of up to 97%. The study was conducted by the University of California and the team behind the Cardiogram app, which tracks heart rate using the Apple Watch.
Cardiogram is now refining its algorithms, and the company says that soon it’ll be able to notify Watch users if they have abnormal heart rates.
The big rumor that could change everything
Besides heart health, rumors are that Apple has been working for years to develop sensors that can monitor blood sugar levels. Right now, the only way to properly blood sugar levels is by using a blood sample, or a device that penetrates the skin. If Apple can invent a non-invasive glucose monitor on the Watch — and that’s a big if — it would be revolutionary.
That’s because a glucose monitor would not just benefit diabetics, who need to keep an eye on their blood sugar levels, it would also benefit everyone else. Before people develop type 2 diabetes, they have ‘pre-diabetes,’ which means that their blood sugar levels are higher than normal. However, there are usually no symptoms, you won’t know you’re pre-diabetic unless you go for a blood test.
People who are pre-diabetic can prevent the onset of diabetes, but the first step is to know that they’re pre-diabetic in the first place. If Apple can crack this, then it immediately shifts the Watch from a nice-to-have gadget to a must-have part of life.
The Apple Watch is trending in the right direction
Besides the rising sales of Apple Watch and the realization of its health potential, Apple is also heading in the right direction with ResearchKit, which helps medical institutions conduct medical research studies, turning the iPhone into a tool for health and big data. Tim Cook has also shown a willingness to protect Apple’s users’ privacy, which is something you want for a company that you’d entrust your health data to.
The wearables market is a tough one, but I think Apple, if anyone else, has a shot of making the Watch the next big thing, if it continues working on big and actionable data. Frankly, I hope they succeed, because the implications for health are pretty exciting.
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